May 2026 · Offer Valuation Analysis
Offer Valuation Analysis · 465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA

465 Blossom
Hill Road

A defensible offer range for a 10,800 SF Class C retail building on the Blossom Hill corridor — three valuation approaches reconciled into one number.

Prepared by Alina Siert · KW Advisors
Prepared for Presence Church
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 02
Confidentiality & Disclaimer

This is an offer valuation analysis prepared for the prospective buyer, not a formal appraisal. Recipient agrees to keep these materials strictly confidential.

All materials and information received or derived from KW Advisors, its directors, officers, agents, advisors, affiliates and/or any third-party sources are provided without representation or warranty as to completeness, veracity, or accuracy, condition of the property, compliance or lack of compliance with applicable governmental requirements, developability or suitability, financial performance of the property, projected financial performance of the property, value and/or potential value, the suitability or fitness of the property for a particular use or purpose, or any other matter.

The recipient is solely responsible for evaluating and verifying property condition and information through independent sources before making any decision to purchase, invest, lease, or otherwise act on the property. Any projections, opinions, assumptions, or estimates used herein are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the property.

The Offer Valuation Analysis presented here represents the broker's professional opinion of the most probable price the property would bring in a competitive and open market, prepared for the buyer's offer decision. This analysis is not a formal appraisal and should not be relied upon as such. Recipients underwriting an acquisition should obtain an independent appraisal from a licensed appraiser.

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465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 03
Executive Summary

At a glance — concluded value, supporting ranges, and the revision.

$4.25M
Concluded Offer Value
$393.52 / SF · as of 5/6/2026
$2.7–4.0M
As-Is Range
Where vacant comp evidence converges
$4.3–4.9M
Stabilized Range
Leased at $23.88 NNN, 5.26–6.00% cap
$5.988M
Revised From
Asking price on current OM (06.04.25) — revised after verified comp + tax-assessment crosscheck
  • Subject: 10,800 SF retail building on 1.00 AC, built 1972, Class C / 2-star, 100% vacant ~448 days
  • Audience: investment fund evaluating financing for the acquisition (out-of-area)
  • Approach: three valuation approaches — income capitalization, sales comparison, land/redevelopment — reconciled into a defensible offer range
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Section 01 · Market Context

San Jose → South San Jose retail submarket → what it means for an offer on a vacant Class C box.

The headline numbers favor sellers. The segment numbers don't.

In this section
01Submarket key stats
02Vacancy & rent by subtype
03Sales velocity & cap rates
04The lens for our offer
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 05
Trends · Submarket

South San Jose retail at a glance.

4.2%
Vacancy Rate
vs. 5-yr avg 5.4%, 10-yr avg 4.9%
97.4K
12-Mo Net Absorption (SF)
Hist. avg 53,209 SF
0
12-Mo Deliveries (SF)
No supply pressure
1.4%
Asking Rent Growth (YoY)
vs. 10-yr avg 3.1% — cooling
  • 10.3M SF total inventory; ~460,000 SF available (4.5% availability)
  • Headline 4.2% vacancy looks tight — but with material variation by subtype (next slide)
  • Forecast end-2026: vacancy 4.3%, rent growth 1.2%
Source: CoStar South San Jose Retail Submarket Report, 5/8/2026 (license #1535349)
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 06

Subject's segment isn't tight — neighborhood centers are the highest-vacancy subtype in the submarket.

SubtypeVacancyAsking RentYoYRead
Mall3.6%$44.081.3%Tight
Power Center2.4%$44.881.4%Tightest
Neighborhood Ctr6.3%$43.571.3%Highest vacancy
Strip Center4.6%$37.551.8%Volatile
General Retail1.0%$40.341.7%Tight
Submarket Overall4.2%$42.431.4%Headline
  • NC vacancy peaked 9.2% in 2022 — improving but still above 2019 lows of 4.7%
  • Submarket asking rent: $30/SF (2014) → $42.43 (YTD 2026); forecast $47.89 by 2030
CoStar — Vacancy Rate by Subtype
CoStar vacancy rate by subtype, South San Jose retail

Neighborhood Center (green) sits visibly above all other subtypes — same story the table tells, in one chart.

Source: CoStar South San Jose Retail Submarket Report, p.3, p.6, p.18
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 07
Trends · Sales & Cap Rates

What buyers are paying — and absorbing.

20
Sale Comparables (12 Mo)
280K SF traded
5.3%
Avg Cap Rate
Submarket est. 5.6% · metro 5.7%
$302
Avg Price / SF
Submarket est. $472 · metro $493
20.3%
Avg Vacancy at Sale
Buyers routinely absorb material vacancy
CoStar — Market Cap Rate by Subtype
CoStar market cap rate by subtype, South San Jose retail
One-stat takeaway for the fund: the average buyer in this submarket already prices in 20% vacancy. Subject is 100% vacant; we underwrite it that way. The income approach later in this deck shows you exactly how that flows through.
Source: CoStar South San Jose Retail Submarket Report, p.10–13
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 08
Section 01 · Synthesis · The lens for the offer

Headline submarket numbers favor sellers. Segment numbers don't — and the corridor evidence makes the case for buyer leverage.

Lens — what the data implies
Headline Submarket vacancy 4.2% looks tight — but neighborhood-center vacancy (subject's segment) is 6.3%, the highest of any subtype.
Rent Growth Cooled from 10-yr avg 3.1% to 1.4% YoY — sellers don't have pricing tailwinds.
Supply 0 SF under construction; only 20K SF proposed (696 Blossom Hill, 7/2026 start). No absorption tailwind either.
Corridor 3 of 11 surveyed Blossom Hill / Monterey corridor properties are 0% leased (subject + 898 Blossom Hill / Kohl's Plaza + 5506 Monterey Hwy).
Marketing Subject's 448-day marketing time is consistent with a soft market for vacant Class B/C.
Key Readings
6.3%
NC Vacancy · Subject's Subtype
1.4%
YoY Rent Growth · Cooling
20.3%
Avg Vacancy at Sale · Submarket
448d
Subject Marketing Time
Implication for the offer: seller motivation may be elevated, buyer has pricing leverage, and underwriting must absorb lease-up cost. The headline submarket favors sellers; the segment-level data and corridor evidence don't.
Sources: CoStar Submarket Report · CoStar lease comp survey · Subject listing data · KW analysis
Section 02 · Subject Property

10,800 SF Class C retail on 1.00 acre, fully vacant — and how the listing broker priced it.

Site facts, status, tax assessment context, and the gap between the seller's ask and what the data supports.

In this section
01Property overview & site facts
02Listing & asking-price context
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 10
Property Overview

465 Blossom Hill Rd
by the numbers.

Building
GLA10,800 SF
Lot1.00 AC (43,560 SF)
Year Built1972
ClassC / 2-star
TypeRetail Storefront
Stories1
FrontageBlossom Hill
Parking53 spaces (4.90 / 1,000 SF)
ZoningCP
Bldg FAR0.25
Status & Tax
Occupancy0% (fully vacant)
Marketing~448 days
TenancySingle (vacant)
Tax 2025 — Land$3,904,315
Tax 2025 — Imp.$3,458,108
Tax 2025 — Total$7,362,423
Tax / SF$8.44 / SF (2024)

Seller pricing: Asking $5,988,000 (current OM dated 06.04.25) reflects a leased-asset profile and ignores 100% vacancy plus a $400K–$700K lease-up reserve. The 2025 county assessment ($7.36M) sits above verified vacant-comp evidence.

465 Blossom Hill Rd aerial view
465 Blossom Hill Rd building front 465 Blossom Hill Rd building exterior

Property exteriors · 465 Blossom Hill Rd, San Jose

Photos & aerial: CoStar property database, 2025
Section 03 · Valuation

Three approaches reconciled into one defensible offer range.

Income capitalization, sales comparison, and land/redevelopment — what each implies, where they agree, and what a buyer would actually pay.

In this section
01Income capitalization
02Sales comparison + land/redevelopment
03Reconciliation + buyer-path tranches
04Recommended offer value
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 12

Income Capitalization
$3.7M – $4.6M as-is · $4.4M – $5.0M stabilized.

Pro Forma Build

  • Rent anchor: $28 / SF NNN — Hacienda Gardens executed at $30 NNN (8/2024, 17,340 SF Class C 1963), discounted ~7% for subject condition
  • $28 × 10,800 SF − 5% vacancy − landlord opex → ~$264K stabilized NOI
  • Cap rate range: 5.26% – 6.00% (Comp 4 / 981 Blossom Hill / IHOP at 5.26% verified; market 6.00%)

Reconciled Output

  • Stabilized indicated: $4.4M – $5.0M
  • Less lease-up reserve (TI/LC + 12–18 mo downtime): $400K – $700K
  • As-is indicated: $3.7M – $4.6M
  • Best for: investor underwriting future NNN income
As-Is
$3.7M – $4.6M
Stabilized
$4.4M – $5.0M
NOI
~$264K
Cap Rate
5.26 – 6.00%
Comp 4's IHOP lease expired Nov 2025 · IHOP comp 4 anchors this approach · Full sensitivity grid in Appendix A8
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 13

Sales comparison and land/redevelopment — both anchored to vacant comps.

Sales Comparison
Indicated Range
$2.7M – $3.2M
$ / SF
$250 – $296

Anchor · 405 Blossom Hill Rd

  • Sold 3/6/2026 · $1,700,000 · 6,020 SF · $282/SF
  • Buyer: Charities Housing Dev Corp (nonprofit affordable redev)
  • Vacant retail, redev buyer — closest analog to subject: same corridor, same buyer thesis
  • $282/SF × 10,800 SF · adjusted −10% for size (slower lease-up)

Best for: owner-user / nonprofit redev

Land / Redevelopment
Defensible $/AC
$1.7M – $3.9M
× 1.00 AC
$1.7M – $3.9M
Anchor$ / ACSource
Comp 1 — 405 Blossom Hill$2,698,413Vacant retail / redev buyer
Comp 5 — 5651 Cottle$1,698,946Sale-implied; 4.27 AC
Comp 5 — assessor crosscheck$1,639,933Independent validation
Subject — 2025 land assessed$3,904,315Upper end of range
Comp 6 — 6097 Snell$7,246,377Owner-user gas premium
Comp 7 — 620 Blossom Hill$8,798,165Meriwest CU adjacency

Best for: developer / repositioning

Full comp roster + exclusions in Appendix A1, A3
465 Blossom Hill Rd · San Jose, CA 95123 14

Reconciliation & buyer-path tranches — three approaches, one range, four scenarios.

Reconciliation — Indicated Ranges by Approach
ApproachIndicated LowIndicated HighBest for buyer type
Income Capitalization (as-is)$3.7M$4.6MInvestor pricing future NNN income
Sales Comparison$2.7M$3.2MOwner-user / nonprofit redev
Land / Redevelopment$1.7M$3.9MDeveloper / repositioning
Concluded — AS-IS$2.7M$4.0MWhere vacant comp evidence converges
Concluded — STABILIZED$4.3M$4.9MFully leased at $23.88 NNN, capped 5.26–6.00%
Buyer-Path Tranches — Where You Land Depends on Who You Are
ScenarioRange$/SFBuyer profileWhat you'd need to believe
Conservative (as-is)$3.5M – $4.0M$324 – $370Owner-user / nonprofit redevMirror Comp 1 (Charities Housing) — defensive pricing
Recommended Offer Midpoint$4.25M$393.52Investor or owner-user (general)Defensible without a special story
Lease-up investment$4.5M – $4.9M$417 – $454Investor underwriting NNN income$23.88/SF NNN × 10,800 SF ≈ $258K NOI capped 5.26–6%
Strategic buyer$5.0M – $5.5M+$463+Specific owner-user / dense entitlementMirror Comp 7 (Meriwest adjacency) or Comp 6 (Gawfco)
Three lenses, one range. The $4.25M recommended midpoint sits cleanly inside the as-is income approach indicated range. Pick the tranche that matches your thesis — once you decide, we'll set the offer accordingly.
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Recommendation · Final Value

Concluded value: $4,250,000.

Final Value
$4.25M
$ / SF
$393.52
As Of
5/6/2026
  • Revised from current OM asking of $5.988M after verified comp + tax-assessment crosscheck
  • Sits inside the as-is income approach indicated range ($3.7M – $4.6M)
  • Cross-checked against submarket data (avg cap 5.3% / avg vacancy at sale 20.3%)
  • Final offer should reflect seller motivation, deal terms, and buyer profile
Appendix · Supporting Detail

The data behind the conclusion.

Sales-comp roster, tax-assessment crosscheck, lease comps (executed + active), pro forma build, cap-rate sensitivity, sources.

In the appendix
A1Sales comp roster (all 7)
A2Tax assessment crosscheck
A3Excluded comps & why
A4–5Lease comps (executed + active)
A6–7Market rent + pro forma NOI build
A8Cap-rate sensitivity grid
A10Sources & methodology
465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A1 17

Sales comp roster — all 7 comps, peach = anchored, ✕ = excluded.

#AddressSale DateSale PriceGLA (SF)$/SFCapLand (AC)Buyer / Type
1405 Blossom Hill Rd3/6/2026$1,700,0006,020$2820.63Charities Housing (nonprofit redev)
21015 Blossom Hill Rd (Denny's)1/16/2026$4,195,3335,504$7621.06Essential Properties (sale-leaseback)
36133 Camino Verde — Plaza de Santa Teresa12/30/2025$1,550,00020,091$15450% partial interest in condo
4981 Blossom Hill Rd (IHOP)7/22/2025$5,575,0004,600$1,2125.26%0.72Longzhe Li — income cap anchor
55651 Cottle Rd (Orchard Supply)6/26/2025$7,254,50044,648$1624.27Dollinger Properties (vacant big-box auction)
66097 Snell (Santa Teresa Sq)5/15/2025$5,000,0002,001$2,4990.69Gawfco (gas station owner-user)
7620 Blossom Hill (Sunrise Plaza)5/5/2025$9,590,0009,001$1,0651.09Meriwest Credit Union (adjacency)
Highlighted (peach): strongest comps for subject · Greyed: excluded — see A3 · Source: CoStar transaction notes, May 2026
465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A2 18

Tax assessment crosscheck — Prop 13* lens.

#AddressLand AssessedImp. AssessedTotal AssessedSale PriceAssd / Sale
1405 Blossom Hill$1,393,996$2,162,712$3,556,708$1,700,000209%
4981 Blossom Hill (IHOP)$4,319,899$1,421,738$5,741,637$5,575,000103%
55651 Cottle (Orchard)$7,002,517$3,612,688$10,615,205$7,254,500146%
66097 Snell (gas)$1,323,928$281,941$1,605,869$5,000,00032%
7620 Blossom Hill (CU)$2,151,776$1,352,541$3,504,317$9,590,00037%
SUBJECT — 465 Blossom Hill$3,904,315$3,458,108$7,362,423— (vacant)
  • Wide ratio spread = Prop 13 timing, not weak market values. Long-held comps (6: 11.5 yrs; 7: 7.5 yrs) carry frozen pre-reset assessments → low ratios.
  • Comp 1's 209% ratio is also a Prop 13 quirk: 2025 roll set before the 3/6/2026 sale.
  • Comp 5: assessor land value independently validates sale-implied $/AC ($1,639,933 / AC vs. $1,698,946 / AC sale-implied).
  • Subject's 2025 land assessment ($3.9M / 1.00 AC) sits at the upper end of the defensible $/AC range.

*Prop 13: California's 1978 property-tax limitation. A property's assessed value is set at acquisition price and can only rise ~2% per year while held; on sale, the assessor "resets" to the new market value. Long-held assets therefore carry assessments well below market (low assessed/sale ratios), while recently-traded assets reset close to market — which is why ratios swing widely across comps and don't reflect underlying value.

Source: Santa Clara County Assessor 2025 roll · CoStar tax data
465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A3 19
Appendix A3

Excluded comps & why.

Including these would inflate the indicated value without an apples-to-apples buyer-profile match. The peach-highlighted comps (1, 4, 5) are the ones we anchor methods to.

Comp 2 · 1015 Blossom Hill (Denny's)

Sale-leaseback / portfolio allocation. Master Lease at portfolio level, not market lease — not arm's-length.

Comp 3 · 6133 Camino Verde

50% partial interest in a condo. Not directly comparable to subject's whole-asset, fee-simple profile.

Comp 6 · 6097 Snell (Santa Teresa Sq)

Gas station operator (Gawfco) owner-user purchase. Strategic premium for fuel-pad operations, not a generic land or redev comp.

Comp 7 · 620 Blossom Hill (Sunrise Plaza)

Meriwest Credit Union owner-user with adjacency premium. Buyer paid for proximity to existing operations, not raw land/building value.

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465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A4 20

Lease comps — executed (last 24 months).

#AddressYr / ClassSFRent $/SFServiceSign DateTenant / TermNotes
11015 Blossom Hill1978 / B5,504WithheldNNN1/16/26Denny's, 25 yrSale-leaseback
21030 Blossom Hill1964 / B19,592Not disclosedDirect10/16/25Same corridor, similar size
3–55272 Monterey Hwy1964 / C14,000Not disclosedDirect6/30/25Los Gonzales / Mariscos / BarrerasMulti-tenant Class C
64850 Harwood Rd1963 / C5,802$45.00 NNNNNN +4% esc6/2/25Toddler Town, 10 yrDisclosed; "Needs Renovation"
7Hacienda Gardens (3171–3197 Meridian)1963 / C17,340$30.00 NNNNNN8/21/24Sky Zone, 10 yrSTRONGEST ANALOG — large-block Class C
  • Disclosure rate: 2 of 7 (29%) — large-block Class B/C lease rents are typically withheld
  • Disclosed rents: $30 NNN (Hacienda Gardens, large block) and $45 NNN (Toddler Town, small footprint)
  • $30 NNN at Hacienda Gardens is the closest analog to subject's profile — same era (1963 vs 1972), same Class, large block, similar South San Jose corridor
Source: CoStar lease comp pull, May 2026
465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A5 21

Lease comps — active listings.

#AddressYr / ClassAvail. SFAsking Rent% LeasedNotes
12011–2023 Camden (Camden Park)1990 / 3-star690 – 1,548$39 NNN77.7%Small in-line pads, premium
25750–5768 Santa Teresa (Cahalan Sq)1979 / renov 20221,420 – 1,805$36 NNN +$0.90 CAM81.9%Recent renovation premium
3898 Blossom Hill (Kohl's Plaza)1971 / 2-star20,000Withheld0%SUBJECT'S TWIN — same era, class, corridor
41080 Blossom Hill (Blossom Hill Shopping)1978 / 3-star1,400 – 5,505Withheld13.6%Same corridor, heavy vacancy
51111–1125 Branham Ln1967 / 3-star1,500 – 5,000Withheld74.2%CVS, O'Reilly, Carl's Jr anchors
65899 Santa Teresa (Plaza Del Rey)1986 / 3-star5,803Withheld50%Heavy vacancy
72029–2035 Camden (Camden Park)1990 / 3-star1,902$60 NNN69.7%OUTLIER — small pad premium
84424–4442 Pearl Ave (Branham Plaza)1965 / 2-star650$30 NNN92.8%Disclosed, 650 SF small suite
91173–1187 Redmond (Redwood Plaza)1976 / 3-star875Withheld90.2%Small strip, well-leased
105506 Monterey Hwy (Monterey Plaza)1990 / 2-star5,000Withheld0%Newer (1990) but FULLY VACANT
Disclosure rate 5 of 10 (50%) · 3 of 11 surveyed properties (subject + 898 + 5506) are 0% leased — corridor-level evidence of soft demand
465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A6–7 22

Market rent conclusion → pro forma NOI build · $28 NNN → ~$264K NOI.

A6 · Market Rent Conclusion — Anchor at $28 NNN
TierMarket RentAnchor / Logic
Low / conservative$26.00 NNNSubject's $23.88 ask + slight uplift; worst-case condition discount
MID / RECOMMENDED ANCHOR$28.00 NNNHacienda Gardens ($30 NNN) discounted ~7% for condition
High / aspirational$30.00 NNNMatch Hacienda Gardens. Achievable only with significant TI
Outliers (do NOT use)$36 – $60 NNNSmall in-line pad rents (650 – 1,900 SF) — not analog
A7 · Pro Forma Income Build — Two Methods Converge
Line ItemMethod A — NNNMethod B — Gross Equivalent (35%)
Market rent (NNN)$28.00 / SF$28.00 / SF
+ Estimated opex burden$12.00 / SF
× Subject GLA10,800 SF10,800 SF
Gross potential rent$302,400$432,000
Less 5% vacancy / collection loss−$15,120−$21,600
Less expenseslandlord ~8% of EGI35%*
STABILIZED NOI~$264K~$265K
$28 NNN → ~$264K NOI. Hacienda Gardens executed at $30 NNN (17,340 SF Class C 1963) on 8/21/2024 — discount ~7% for subject condition lands at $28 NNN. Both pro forma methods (NNN and gross-equivalent) converge near the same NOI — independent validation.

*standard assumption

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465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A8 23

Cap rate sensitivity grid — NOI / cap = indicated value.

RentNOI@ 5.26%@ 5.90%@ 6.00%@ 6.50%@ 7.00%Notes
$26$245,419$4.67M$4.16M$4.09M$3.78M$3.51MConservative; matches subject's $23.88 ask
$28$264,298$5.02M$4.48M$4.40M$4.07M$3.78MRECOMMENDED ANCHOR
$30$283,176$5.38M$4.80M$4.72M$4.36M$4.05MMatch Hacienda Gardens; needs significant TI
$32$302,054$5.74M$5.12M$5.03M$4.65M$4.32MAspirational; submarket avg minus 25% large-block

Bold row = recommended anchor at $28 NNN (Hacienda Gardens minus condition discount). Submarket-level avg cap rate from CoStar 12-mo trades is 5.3% — supports the lower end of our 5.26 – 6.00% range.

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465 Blossom Hill Rd · Appendix A10 24
Appendix A10

Sources & methodology.

Verified comp data, lease comps, submarket benchmarks, and the underwriting assumptions behind the NOI build and the $/AC range.

Transaction & Property Data

  • Verified comp transaction details (buyer, sale type, NOI, cap rate): CoStar transaction notes, May 2026
  • Tax assessment values: Comps 1, 4, 6, 7 from CoStar; Comps 2, 3, 5 from Santa Clara County Assessor
  • Subject 2025 tax assessment: $3.9M land / $3.5M imp / $7.4M total

Lease & Submarket Data

  • Executed lease comps + active listings: CoStar, May 2026 pull
  • South San Jose Retail Submarket Report, 5/8/2026 (license #1535349)
  • Submarket benchmarks: vacancy 4.2%, asking $42.43 / SF, NC vacancy 6.3%

Methodology

  • Method A (NNN structure): tenant pays opex; landlord ~5–10% expense load
  • Method B (gross-equivalent, 35% expense ratio — standard assumption)
  • Lease-up cost ($400K – $700K): TI $30 – 50/SF, LCs ~6% of lease value, 12 – 18 mo downtime
  • Land valuation: $/AC anchored to vacant non-owner-user comps (1, 5)

Photography & Aerial

  • Property exterior & aerial photography sourced from CoStar property database, 2025
  • KW broker confirmed property condition observations during March 2026 review
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Contact · KW Advisors

Alina Siert

Commercial Real Estate, Luxury Residential · Keller Williams Advisors

Direct (408) 712-7692 Email Alina@SiertGroup.com Office 1430 Howard Ave, Burlingame, CA 94010 DRE 01893238
Schedule a consultation Connect on LinkedIn
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